BofAML’s Top 10 Emerging Market Risks In 2014

While moderate recovery in growth and inflation is BofAML’s rates team’s base case, there are numerous risks to that forecast. The risk of tapering is already quite well known and they suspect it may not result in the significant market-moving event ma… [...]

Goldman’s Top Ten 2014 Market Themes

The following Top Ten Market Themes, represent the broad list of macro themes from Goldman Sachs' economic outlook that they think will dominate markets in 2014. Showtime for the US/DM Recovery Forward guidance harder in an above-trend world Earn … [...]

Quote Of The Day: Bill Dudley’s Schrodinger Forecast

Somehow, Fed head Bill Dudley has managed to encompass the entire “we must keep the foot to the floor” premise of the Fed in one mind-bending sentence: *DUDLEY SEES `POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNFORESEEN SHOCK’ So – based on an “unforeseen” shock – which he… [...]

What An Ex-FOMC Governor Really Wants To Tell You About The Fed

Submitted by F.F.Wiley of Cyniconomics blog, Hunting season is off to a good start this week, and I’m not just talking about deer hunting. It seems that former Fed officials declared open season on their ex-colleagues. First, Andrew Huszar, who o… [...]

Next From The ECB: Here Comes QE, According To BNP

The latest myth of a European recovery came crashing down two weeks ago when Eurostat reported an inflation print of 0.7% (putting Europe’s official inflation below that of Japan’s 1.1%), followed promptly by a surprise rate cut by Mario Draghi which a… [...]

Guest Post: Why The Fed Likely Won’t Taper (For Long)… Anytime Soon

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management, As the S&P 500 continues to push to one new high after the next, the bullish arguments of valuation have quietly given way to "it's all about the Fed."  The biggest angst that… [...]

Goldman Forecasts Fed Will Lower Rate-Hike Threshold In December To Counter Taper Tantrum

The extreme experiment of current US monetary policy has evolved (as we noted yesterday), from explicit end-dates, to unlimited end-dates, to threshold-based end-dates. Of course, this ‘threshold’ was no problem for the liquidty whores when unemploymen… [...]

The Fallacies Of Forward Guidance

With the recent adoption of explicit forward guidance as a stimulative policy tool by the major European central banks, virtually every major central bank is now using the tool in some form. The potential benefits and dangers of such policies as centra… [...]

Retail Sales Slow As Shopping Season Heats Up

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management, While the specter of the debt ceiling debate continues to haunt the halls of Washington D.C. it is the state of retail sales that investors should be potentially focusing on.  While the latest … [...]

5 Things To Ponder For The Rest Of The Week

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management, The debt ceiling debate continues into its third week as the impasse between the Democrats and Republicans continues unabated.  The latest proposal to lift the debt ceiling, fund the government… [...]