No Red Futures On Black Friday

A hungover America slowly wakes up from a day of society-mandated consumption and purchasing excess to engage in even more Fed-mandated excess in the equity markets. The only difference is that while the “90%” was engaged in the former and depleting th… [...]

Quote Of The Day: JCPenney Edition

Despite the stock’s renaissance (eerily reminiscent of Eastman Kodak), recent images of the crammed and disorganized racks at various JCPenney stores do little to conjure confidence that staff or management either know what they are doing – or give a s… [...]

Guess The Profit Margin

In today’s finance lesson, JCPenney demonstrates what happens when one takes the X in TR=P*X a little too far. As for that “Old Normal” concept of of actually generating a profit on TR… well, just ask Amazon. h/t @BrianSozzi     [...]

Just Before David Tepper Was Preaching A 20x P/E On CNBC, He Was Selling These Stocks

On October 15, two weeks after the end of the third quarter, David Tepper appeared on CNBC for his semi-annual stock pumpfest, most memorable for his suggestion that a 20x P/E multiple on the S&P was perfectly acceptable. Which would suggest Tepper… [...]

JCPuking All The Way To Penneystock Status

Across the entire curve, credit spreads on JCPenney are exploding. The curve is inverted with the market indicating an almost 50% chance of default within the next 2 years (specifically in 2014 as opposed to pre-2013 Xmas). The stock price is collapsin… [...]

USA Credit Risk Now Worse Than 2011

Understanding the complexities of the sovereign CDS market is tricky… so we are constantly bemused by the mainstream media’s constant comment on it as if they have a clue. The fact is that the USA CDS market is indicating a higher risk of imminent te… [...]

Kyle Bass Warns "There Is No Way To Protect Yourself If US Treasuries Default"

“If the politicians lead us into a ‘prioritization of payments’ situation for Treasury Secretary Lew or an actual missed payment, there is nothing you can do to protect yourself from that!” are the ominous words that Kyle Bass uses to describe the farc… [...]

US Treasury Default Risk Now The Same As JCPenney’s Was In July

The cost of protecting against a default on US Treasuries for one-year has surged to 60bps this morning. This is the highest since the Debt-ceiling debacle in 2011 and worse than Lehman. The 1Y cost is the highest relative to the 5Y cost ever.   … [...]

Frontrunning: October 4

Troops Forage for Food While Golfers Play On in Shutdown (BBG) Police suspect dental hygienist Miriam Carey was behind the wheel of Capitol chase (WaPo) Italian Senate committee starts Berlusconi expulsion process (Reuters) Swiss Regulator Probing Ban… [...]

JCPenney Default Risk Spikes To All-Time High; Stock At 30-Year Lows

It would appear that the almost $1bn capital raise secondary that JCPenney successfully completed last week – inspite of the lies – has done absolutely nothing to resolve market fears as JCP 5Y CDS surges 80bps to 1280bps (equivalent), a record high (a… [...]