The Time To Hike Rates Is Now According To The Beveridge Curve

In addition to being a sanity, and manipulation, check to the non-farm payrolls number where “drift” occasionally gets so profound even the BLS is forced to cower in shame for openly making up numbers, the monthly JOLTS survey also includes, as part of… [...]

Michael Pettis Cautions Abe (And Krugman): "Debt Matters"

"Debt matters… even if it is possible to pretend for many years that it doesn't," is the painful truth that, author of "Avoiding The Fall", Michael Pettis offers for the current state of most western economies. Specifically, P… [...]

BofA Warns "Further Euro Appreciation Is A Problem"

With only 3 of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a rate cut at tomorrow's ECB press conference, Credit Agricole's Frederik Ducorzet suggests seven signals to watch for from Draghi that could signal ECB easing ahead. Crucially, as Bo… [...]

Guest Post: Rediscovering The Price Of Money… When Things Can’t Get Any Worse

Submitted by Steen Jakobsen, CIO Saxo Bank (via Trading Floor.com), I’ve been starting my speeches for some time now by saying: “I am the most optimistic I have been in almost thirty years in the market—if only because things can&rsqu… [...]

It’s A PIK Toggle Credit Bubble, But "This Time It’s Different" Says Moody’s

Two weeks ago we first pointed out that as a result of the quiet creep in high grade leverage to fresh record high levels, the resurgence in PIK Toggle debt for LBOs and otherwise, means that the credit bubble is now worse than ever and that the next c… [...]

Econflict Deepens: Reinhart, Rogoff Strike Back At "Hyperbolic" Krugman

Just when you thought the R&R debate was finished, it seems Paul Krugman’s latest “spectacularly uncivil behavior” pushed Reinhart and Rogoff too far. In what can only be described as the most eruditely worded of “fuck you”s, the pair go on the off… [...]

Guest Post: The Microeconomics Of Inflation (Or How We Know This Ends In Tears)

Submitted by Martin Sibileau of A View From The Trenches blog, A week later and everyone is a bit more nervous, with the speculation that US sovereign debt purchases by the Federal Reserve will wind down and with the Bank of Japan completely cornered. … [...]

Charles Gave: "France Is On The Brink of A Secondary Depression"

Authored by Charles Gave of Gavekal.com, France is engulfed by a political, economic and moral paralysis. The president has record low popularity, unemployment is making new highs and the tax czar of a supposedly left wing government just quit after re… [...]

Guest Post: Why Europe Is Still In Peril, In Two Charts

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics blog, A lot of analysts, including myself, have given the European situation a rest since last year. There were certainly some signs that the ECB and IMF had slowed (if not stopped) the deterioration by providing l… [...]

German Civil Servants Get Pay Increase in Excess of Inflation

It is not being widely discussed, but we suspect the wage settlement in Germany over the weekend is an important development. The agreement that covers 765k state government workers in Germany, represented by Verdi, reached a two-year deal for a 5.6% w… [...]