Macro Considerations

The macro picture remains largely unchanged. Janet Yellen is expected to lead the Federal Reserve into a new phase by beginning to taper its long-term asset purchases early next year. The ECB is expect to move in the other direction, leaning against th… [...]

Black Friday Sales Tumble 13% On Thanksgiving Thursday Opening Scramble

Update: more data trickling in from the NRF, and since it is not pretty,  so expect much more blame to fall on the weather. U.S. consumers spent $57.4b over Black Friday weekend, down from last year’s $59.1b, National Retail Federation says Con… [...]

Shiller Worried About "Boom In US Stocks… Bubbles Look Like This"

On the heels of his recent appearance pouring cold water on Jim Cramer's housing recovery exuberance, recent Nobel Prize winner Bob Shiller unloads another round of uncomfortable truthiness (presumably on the basis of his future-proofing tenure gua… [...]

A-Rod And Janet Yellen: What Valuation, Debt And The Fed Can Say About The Next Bear Market

Submitted by F.F. Wiley of Cyniconomics What Can Valuation, Debt and the Fed Tell Us about the Next Bear Market? We last wrote about stock valuation in August, when we looked at three types of P/E multiples and argued that stocks were more stretched t… [...]

Dollar and Yen Weakness may Persist, Aussie Poised for Bounce

The British pound was the only major currency to have gained against the US dollar over the past month.  Its 2% gain helped it finish November at its highest level since August 2011. The dollar rose against the other majors, with its 4.1% rise aga… [...]

Visualizing Abenomics – Japan’s Dangerous Experiment

The early effects of the reform program have triggered a surge in the Japanese stock market, accelerated by the anticipation of growth revival. So far, so good for the markets and traders. But how will Abenomics accommodate public debt of over 200% GDP… [...]

Marc Faber: "We Are In A Gigantic Speculative Bubble"

“We have to be careful of these kind of exponentially rising markets,” chides Marc Faber, adding that he “sees no value in stocks.” Fearful of shorting, however, because “the bubble in all asset prices” can keep going due to the printing of money by wo… [...]

Signs of a Top

The primary drivers of asset prices are the economy and corporate earnings. With that in mind, consider that both are rolling over today.   Indeed, when we take the big picture, we find that corporate profits, as a percentage of GDP are also at al… [...]

No Red Futures On Black Friday

A hungover America slowly wakes up from a day of society-mandated consumption and purchasing excess to engage in even more Fed-mandated excess in the equity markets. The only difference is that while the “90%” was engaged in the former and depleting th… [...]

BofAML’s Top 10 Emerging Market Risks In 2014

While moderate recovery in growth and inflation is BofAML’s rates team’s base case, there are numerous risks to that forecast. The risk of tapering is already quite well known and they suspect it may not result in the significant market-moving event ma… [...]