Macro Considerations

The macro picture remains largely unchanged. Janet Yellen is expected to lead the Federal Reserve into a new phase by beginning to taper its long-term asset purchases early next year. The ECB is expect to move in the other direction, leaning against th… [...]

Beware of the Monetary Mobsters!

Last month the IMF came up with a ‘brilliant plan’ to solve the crisis in Europe. As the old continent suffers from record unemployment and a debt pile that has gotten out of control in several (mostly) Southern European countries, the idea is to targe… [...]

Russell Napier: "We Are On The Eve Of A Deflationary Shock "

In the aftermath of Ray Dalio’s conversion to an inflationista earlier this year (even if he has since once again been pushing a deflationary agenda when he once again went long Treasurys in late September as Zero Hedge reported previously), which prom… [...]

European Inflation Rises From The Ashes On Rebound In Energy Prices

If October’s stunning(ly low) inflation print of 0.7% is what conventional wisdom believes is the reason for the surprising ECB rate cut (it isn’t – the culprit was the record low increase in private loan creation), then the just released modest increa… [...]

BofAML’s Top 10 Emerging Market Risks In 2014

While moderate recovery in growth and inflation is BofAML’s rates team’s base case, there are numerous risks to that forecast. The risk of tapering is already quite well known and they suspect it may not result in the significant market-moving event ma… [...]

There Is Just No Escape From Mario Draghi’s Monetary Zombie Nightmare

On November 7, when the ECB announced a “surprising” rate cut, 67 out of 70 economists who never saw it coming, were shocked. We were not. As we observed ten days prior, Europe had just seen the latest month of record low private sector loan growth in … [...]

Thanksgiving Frontrunning And Market Summary

European shares remain higher though are off intraday highs. Italian, Spanish markets are the biggest gainers among larger bourses, Swiss the worst. Euro is stronger against the dollar. Commodities decline, with soybeans, zinc underperforming and wheat… [...]

The Global Leverage Cycle: You Are Here

While one can make an argument that the central banks have now destroyed all traditional “cycles”, including the economic “virtuous cycle”, the business cycle and even the leverage cycle, the question remains how much longer can the Fed et al defy mean… [...]

Exposing The Reality Of The "Too Good To Be True" Greek Budget Myth

Authored by Martin Feldstein, originally posted at Project Syndicate, Recently, newspaper headlines declared that Greece would have a balanced budget for 2013 as a whole. The news came as quite a shock: Recall that when Greek officials came clean about… [...]

Yen Carry Lifts Risk Around The Globe In Quiet Overnight Trade

In a carry-trade driven world in which news and fundamentals no longer matter, the only relevant “variable” is whether the JPY is down (check) and the EUR is up (check) which always results in green equities around the globe and green futures in the US… [...]