The "Anti-Widowmaker" Trade: Get Paid To Wait For The Japanese House Of Card To Collapse

So many traders think the key to investment riches lies in buying at the bottom or selling at the top: Such a fine but misguided notion. The cold reality is that unless one has (illegal) inside information, you will only transact at these locatio… [...]

JPMorgan Warns: Increasing Rates Have "Reduced The Remaining Refinance Opportunity By More Than 50%"

About an hour ago, Bank of America served the latest indication that the US housing “recovery” (also known as the fourth consecutive dead cat bounce of the cheap credit policy-driven housing market in the past five years) may be on its last breath. Nam… [...]

Yellen’s Odds To Replace Bernanke Slide To Contract Lows

It is not a good time for Janet Yellen. The one time Bernanke-replacement favorite who many were confident would be the next Fed chair, and whose odds in the initial stages of the Fed race were 75%, is so far out of the running one can almost ignore he… [...]

With Fed Holding 31.6% Of All Treasurys, The "Short Gamma" Pain Trade Is The One To Watch

A week ago, the Fed owned 31.47% of all 10 Year TSY-equivalents. One week later, this number has risen to 31.59% as of the most recent Fed balance sheet update. Shown another way, the amount of ten-year equivalents held by the Fed increased to $1.663 … [...]

Three Funny Charts

Nothing like good ole’ Goldman to brighten up things with a wink and a smile just as the economy is sliding, earnings are retrenching (and declining excluding pension underfunding adjustments), cash flow is negative and revenues are poised to double di… [...]

Mortgage Bond Prices Collapse By Most Since 1994 ‘Bond Market Massacre’

“What just occurred [in the mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) market] is indicative of just how important QE is,” as government backed US mortgage bonds suffer their largest quarterly decline in almost two decades. As Bloomberg reports, the $5 trillion … [...]

Fed’s Jeremy Stein Full Speech In Which A "Hypothetical" September Taper Is Announced

The first of three Fed speeches is out, and as expected, it contains nothing new save for the ongoing barage of stock market battering for daring to sell on last week’s Bernanke warnings that the Fed’s monthly flow is set to begin tapering in September… [...]

Confusion Reigns: 6 Weeks Of Hawkishness And 4 Dovish Expectations For This Week’s FOMC

In the six weeks since the last FOMC meeting there has been almost uninterrupted relatively ‘hawkish’ chatter from Fed members. However, the consensus remains convinced there will be no ‘Taper’ anytime soon – as somewhat evidenced by the following summ… [...]